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The ‘rural-urban divide’ furthers myths about race and …
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Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
WebDec 8, 2008 · However, the non-response rate to the post-election survey is lower for the treatment group than for the control group. The observed difference, which has a p-value of 0.11 based on the χ 2-test of a contingency table, may have arisen because the missing data mechanism depends on the actual turnout of the participants of the … WebMar 18, 2024 · Download PDF Abstract: We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the … WebNov 8, 2024 · Binary markets are financial markets that come with one of two payoff options if the contract is held until expiration. If the wager placed is correct, the contract will expire at 100. If the ... grade 2 introduction to multiplication